To say Utah dominated Georgia Tech in the 2005 Emerald Bowl would be an understatement. Utah held the lead for the entire game and never let up, shutting the Yellow Jackets out in the second half. Utah also exhausted Tech's vaunted D, racking up 550 total yards and giving the Jackets its worst bowl loss in program history. The Utes won 38-10.
MWC Standings
(Coming '06)
Thursday, June 15, 2006
Officially gone.
Crimson Blitz is officially done with. Sad I know, but don't get too upset (as if people are reading this, anyway), we've gone the way of Vanilla Ice and reinvented ourselves! Say goodbye to Crimson Blitz and hello to Block U, which suspiciously sounds a lot like something I say to the TV every time George W Bush is on it. That's our new home, goodbye blogspot and hello SBNation!
Crimson Blitz is moving, which explains the lack of updates over the past week or so. The Blitz will soon be located at www.sbnation.com under a new name (Block U), but with the same great blogging you've come to expect (or not expect). I may update throughout the weeks as I ready the blog for the move, so keep checking beck. I'd also like to give a shout out to Bruins Nation for not only linking to a story of mine, but adding a link to their site. Bruins Nation is a fantastically ran UCLA blog that also happens to be apart of the SBNation, so check it out! And why shouldn't you, the Utes play them in less than 100 Days!
Yes this is a Utah Utes blog, however I feel that just talking Utah football -- especially in the spring and summer months -- can get a bit old. So I'm going to venture outside the safe confines of Utah football and pay our brothers to the west a visit.
Unless you're a recluse, most already should know the problems facing USC. It all really began in January of 2006 when the Trojans lost to an underdog Texas team in the national championship game. Even if you didn't buy the hype, the way USC lost left many fans scratching their heads and many pundits questioning their "greatest team ever" mantra. Who knew, back then anyway, that this would begin the unraveling of a possible football giant.
The national championship loss stung, but it wasn't that bad. USC still had a fantastic season, finished the year ranked 2nd in the country and produced the Heisman Trophy winner for the second straight year. Fans were optimistic that, even without Bush, the team could produce yet another great season and the loss to Texas was quickly becoming a distant memory. Then something funny happened by way of a Yahoo! sports columnist -- Reggie Bush might have broken NCAA rules. At first it seemed minor, mostly involving his parents and a sports agent. Then, as most scandals do, it unfolded into something much bigger. This violation got so big that many questioned whether it would cost Bush the Heisman, or worse, USC their 2004 national championship.
It seemed the once strong dynasty that had been USC football was crumbling from within. If the NCAA does come down hard on Bush, which has been speculated, it could devastate a Trojan program already reeling from an unexpected loss in the national championship game. And what's left standing may just be a shell of what once was. A strong giant, fretted by scandal, left to rebuild and retool from the ground up. While it's likely USC will rebound from these problems, at what level and timeframe they do it in is unknown. What we do know is that college football can change at a whim and a once strong program could be passed by another. Just ask Miami, they're proof of this.
While Miami was never embroiled in a scandal that could have cost them their national championship in 2001, their rise and eventual fall is dramatic. And though the fall hasn't been as tough for the Hurricanes as it was for say Nebraska, it was tough none the less, especially for the fans to accept. Mostly because Hurricane football, though always strong, was at the top of their game in 2000. Butch Davis had built a solid team that went 11-1 and won the Big East. Parlaying that into a gig with the NFL, the Hurricanes looked to their own offensive coordinator in their hire, Larry Coker.
Larry Coker overtook a great Miami football team and made it even greater in his first season. The 'Canes won their first national championship in 10 years, finished undefeated and Coker looked like the perfect replacement for Hurricane football. The team, which was dominate the year before, looked even more dominate in Coker's first season. And his second looked even better, as Miami opened up 12-0 (Coker was 24-0 as head coach -- Miami was on a 34 game winning streak) and then went out and was stunned by an underrated, underdog Ohio State team.
Was that loss to Ohio State the downfall of Miami's dynasty? Probably not, as they went 11-2 the very next year, including finishing the season ranked 5th in both major polls. But it showed that the program was not invincible to losing. That's important, because Miami has yet to sniff the success they had in '01 and '02. But beyond that, the Hurricanes faced even a bigger blow as they left the weaker Big East for the more dominate ACC. It's no coincidence that the Hurricanes have failed to win 10-games since leaving the Big East at the end of the '03 season. Both in 2004 and 2005 Miami finished the year 9-3, including a blowout bowl loss to LSU to end last season.
So how does that compare to USC and what USC has done? Well on the surface it may not seem like the two have anything in common. Miami dominated prior to Coker, while USC struggled prior to Carroll. Miami had no real scandals that shook the foundation of their program over the past few years, while the same can't be said for USC. And most importantly, Miami changed conferences while USC still remains in the Pacific Ten.
Yet USC, like Miami, lost in a national championship game they were heavily favored to win. Like Miami, USC was coming in on the heels of an undefeated season the year before, one where they won the national championship. Like Miami, USC was talked about as being the best ever prior to the big game. Now while we can't tell where USC will go from here, sometimes looking to the past gives us an idea. What did Miami in was not only the fact they changed conferences, but that they made critical mistakes when it came to preserving their dynasty. As I said earlier, a program can always revert to the middle of the pack at any given time. In fact, historically that has been the trend. Nebraska, Oklahoma, Miami, Florida State, Florida and even USC, have suffered through this over the years. Football is fickle and as easily as a dynasty can start, it can just as easily end.
USC's downfall may not stem from that of Miami's, but the eventual outcome could be the same. The Trojans aren't invincible and Pete Carroll can be beat. If the Trojans are forced to forfeit the entire 2004 and 2005 seasons, their dynasty may just be over and USC may find itself in Miami's shoes.
Never one to let a speculative opportunity pass, Dennis Dodd of CBS SportsLine shares his 2006 Hot Seat Rankings: Coach-by-coach (all D-1 coaches, to boot). Instead of inundating you all with the entire list, I will just take a look at Mountain West Coaches, ranking them by his rating system.
Dodd's rating system.
0-0.5: Untouchables 1-1.5: Very safe 2-2.5: Safe 3-3.5: On the bubble 4-4.5: Warm seat 5: On the hot seat
The only coach on the hot seat, according to Dodd, is Kentucky coach Rich Brooks, who has gone an appalling 9-25 at Kentucky. Damn, that's some losing right there! Of course, chances of only one coach getting canned at the end of the college football season seems unlikely. So I've got to say there probably should be a few more names added to the hot seat list.
Here's how he ranks the MWC coaches on job stability (ranked in order from most secure, to least).
Gary Patterson (TCU) - 0 Rocky Long (New Mexico) - 1 Chuck Long (SDSU) - 1 Mike Sanford (UNLV) - 1 Kyle Whittingham (Utah) - 1.5 Bronco Mendenhall (BYU) - 2 Sonny Lubick (CSU) - 2 Joe Glenn (Wyoming) - 2.5 Fisher DeBerry (Air Force) - 3.5
DeBerry, along with Ted Roof at Duke and Dennis Franchione at Texas A&M, are the only coaches at a 3.5.
Looking at this list, most coaches in the MWC, outside DeBerry seem to be safe. However I question whether Mike Sanford can continue to be a 1 if he has another terrible season, especially if their offense fails to put up poins.
It's interesting that two of the three bottom guys are also the longest tenured coaches currently in the MWC. Lubick and DeBerry pretty much made their programs, yet both haven't had much success since the 2003 season. Colorado State did make a bowl game last year, however they were destroyed by Navy in it and finished with another non-winning season. Likewise, Air Force finished last year with its second straight non-winning season.
But in the end, these coaches probably won't be fired because they're legends by their program's standards. I guess if DeBerry has another losing season he may step aside, but Lubick is coaching at Colorado State for two more seasons, at least. That's either good or bad if you're a CSU fan. Good because he still is da man and built your program. Bad because he's in obvious decline and the further the program goes down, the harder it will be to bring it back up.
Outside the two oldies, there's New Mexico coach Rocky Long. He's been with the Lobos for 8 seasons and has yet to elapse the .500 mark in his overall record. Oh and he's also failed to win a bowl game or bring Albuquerque its first Mountain West Conference championship. But he's still beloved there and, as Dodd seems to point out with his rankings, he's there until he decides to call it quits.
Utah and BYU are basically in the same boat. You can't gauge the success of a coach based off of his first year, so both are safe for now. With that said, Utah and BYU return a ton of talent and if they can't squeeze out at least 8 wins, (even more so for BYU, since they replace a lot of their offense next year) these two might not cut it.
Patterson is the best coach right now in the MWC and is pretty much at TCU until he decides to either bolt, or retire. And Chuck Long (not to be confused with Rocky Long), will be the MWC's only new coach this season. The talent is there for SDSU to do some great things, but can Long do something past coaches haven't been able to do since the 1980s? That's his task, and not an easy one at that and because of that, he's safe by default.
Can't say I don't agree with his rankings, because they seem pretty accurate. CSU and Air Force won't fire their coaches and for whatever reason Rocky Long has the entire city of Albuquerque by the balls and Sanford, Bronco, Chuck Long and Whittingham are just too new. That leaves Glenn, who has finished with two losing seasons in his first three with Wyoming. If the Cowboys have another losing year, especially in the fashion of last year, the heat will be turned up just a bit. So Glenn watch out, your butt may be burnin soon.
National Champs has their preview up for the 2006 Utah Utes, where they're ranked 33rd. Though the preview costs money to view (a measly $8.95), I'll post a few excerpts here. The preview is extensive and well worth the money, and you can also view other teams' previews as well.
Offensively, this team is stacked in each of their talent units, especially at QB and WR, so only the line has to overcome its issues inside (at center) to give what is needed. How they decide between dual-threats Ratliff and Johnson, or if they rotate them (which is not likely) is a great problem to have. Either is good enough to finish in the nation’s top 10 rankings for QB efficiency, and therefore, no one misses Alex Smith one bit. Utah did have a scoring drop off in the fourth quarter (only scored a total of 44 combined points), and defensively, they also let in the most points in the closing stanza (88), so if they can just get 60 minutes worth of fury, this team should even make a top 25 ranking by November (at the latest).
Last year - the first year without offensive architect Urban Meyer - was successful with new OC Andy Ludwig running the show, and things here should only improve. Utah finished 12th in both total offense and in passing, a testimonial to how well Ludwig (also) coaches these QBs and runs his own version of the spread. Expect no drop off as there is too much firepower here to say anything less will happen in ’06. Many point to the RBs and say little experience will mean lesser results (32nd in ground production last campaign), but the potential there runs just as deep as any other talent area. The QB problem is that three extremely qualified guys have to realize one (or more) might not see much action, if any, as the starter is named and that person takes off like Johnson did last year. Ratliff wouldn’t have seen any snaps if Johnson’s knee hadn’t blown, though Ratliff has the inside track with his amazing showing and Johnson still recovering through the summer, but it is hard to call that race, too. The line could be marginal if the outside shines but the inside struggles as expected, but the expansion of the TE spot and quality blocking backs (Mack, Liti) should allow those crazy schemes Utah runs to work, regardless. Lots of reverses (super-quick Eric Weddle sneaks a few of these) and fakes in their three- and four-WR sets will continue to keep pursuers flat-footed as option after option can burn even BCS-aligned-quality defenses. Ludwig’s second season here will be even better and make many think Meyer never left.
Predicition: 9-3
It's a great read if you have the time and the money, so check out their site and register.
Eric Weddle named to Sporting News preseason All-American team.
The preseason hype continues for the 2006 Utah Utes, as the Sporting News has named Eric Weddle to its pre-season All-American team. He was also listed as the #1 free-safety in the nation, as well as the preseason Mountain West Conference Defensive Player of the Year, an honor he won last season.
Weddle, a senior out of Alta Loma, California, split time between cornerback and safety last season.
Non-BCS teams with the best shot at crashing the BCS party.
In 2004 Utah became the first team from a non-BCS conference to make a BCS bowl game. They further solidified their spot in the 2005 Fiesta Bowl with a thrashing of the Big East Champion, Pitt Panthers. Like every year, the inevitable question will circle around the mid-majors and their ability to crash the BCS like Utah did in 2004.
Utah, on top of being a really good team, also had some favorable things tilt their way. Firstly, they opened the season ranked in the top-25 (ranked by the AP at 21) and also opened their season against former BCS powerhouse Texas A&M on national TV. After demolishing the Aggies live on ESPN, heads were turned and the Utah bandwagon swelled. The Utes would go 12-0, while winning every game by 14 or more points.
Now it seems since Utah has finally done it, expectations have been set for another team from outside of the BCS to find their way to the party. So who's it going to be? Which team will be the next Utah and how will they do it?
Last year TCU came the closest, but an early loss to SMU killed any chance of making a BCS bid. Outside of the Horned Frogs, no team even sniffed the BCS from outside the non-BCS conferences. Unlike in 2004, where Louisville, Utah and Boise State were all legitimate contenders for the BCS, the '05 really lacked any controversy.
This year might actually turn out to be a lot like 2005. However, the rules have changed and it's now realistically possible for a one loss non-BCS team to slide their way in. This will definitely make things more interesting, especially when it comes to some of the non-BCS powers.
Non-BCS teams with the best shot at making a BCS Bowl:
TCU - TCU is the obvious choice based on what they did last year. They have a favorable schedule to do it, especially with how they get Texas Tech at home. However they must go on the road to play Utah, which could ultimately kill their shot at BCS bowl, especially if Utah goes undefeated.
Utah - They did it in 2004, and after a season of transition, the Utes might be ready to do it again. Like TCU, they have a favorable schedule, except they must play UCLA on the road. The opening game against the Bruins will be crucial for the Utes to not only build momentum, but turn national heads much like their victory over A&M did two years ago. The Utes do luck out with Boise State, TCU and BYU all at home.
Boise State - In 2004 they made a lot of noise, but suffered some set backs last year. The hype surrounding BSU heading into the '05 season was completely lost after a blowout loss to Georgia in the opening game. This year, BSU has a new coach, but a relatively easy schedule. Their toughest game is probably going to be at Utah, though there are two rough road games against Oregon State and Nevada. They do however play Fresno State at home.
BYU - Brigham Young is the original BCS busters. Ok, they've never actually made a BCS bowl game, however they did shake things up with their 1984 national championship. Since then, BYU made noise in 1996 and 2001, yet have not done much since. The Cougars have a pretty difficult schedule to overcome, however, with road games against Arizona, Boston College, TCU and Utah. It's pretty unlikely that they can get through that schedule with fewer than 2 losses.
Fresno State - They constantly rank toward the top as a non-BCS program, but have continually failed at getting things done when they count the most. Last year Fresno State made national waves with their near upset of then #1 USC. However, that loss would spark a 4-game losing streak, which cost Fresno State another WAC championship. This season Fresno has probably one of their toughest schedules in school history. Road games against Washington, Boise State and LSU and a home game against Oregon does not bode well for the Bulldogs and will most likely kill any hope of making a BCS bowl game.
Non-BCS teams with a small chance of making a BCS Bowl:
UTEP - Mike Price is doing good things at Texas-El Paso, and he may make some noises this season. That said, UTEP still is not a good enough team to sustain the success needed for a BCS bowl berth. They do have a favorable schedule with their toughest game at home against Texas Tech. However road games against New Mexico, Tulsa, UAB and Marshall might do them in.
Tulsa - Tulsa had an amazing season last year which culminated in a Liberty Bowl win against Fresno State. With that momentum, Tulsa will look to continue their success and parlay that into a possible BCS bowl this season. They certainly have the schedule to do it, though their two toughest games are BYU and Navy, both on the road. Tulsa will have no games against BCS opponents, so that might hurt their strength of schedule and kill any chance at a BCS bowl bid.
Colorado State - Sonny Lubick knows how to win, and that's echoed in his record at Colorado State. Yet he's failed to ever position Colorado State as a real threat to the BCS. Will this year be any different? Probably not, as CSU wasn't much of a team last year and has a fairly difficult schedule this year. They open the season against Colorado in Denver, then go on the road to play Nevada and Fresno State, two decent WAC teams. A difficult early schedule will probably once again keep CSU out of the BCS picture.
Nevada - Nevada last year stunned the WAC by winning a share of the conference championship. This year they'll look to do it again, however they have a fairly difficult early schedule. They open up against Fresno State on the road, then travel to Arizona State. Both games are realistic losses and home games against CSU and Northwestern aren't to be taken lightly, either.
Other teams that could make some noise: Miami Ohio, Toledo, UCF, Navy.
Like in the months leading up to 2004, the Utes are finding their way into preseason top-25 polls. This time, it's Athlon, who ranked Utah 41 last year in their preseason poll. This season, the Utes are ranked 23rd and have a small write-up on their site. The Utes also made the cover of Athlon's Western edition for the third straight year.
The 2006 season is still months away, but that hasn't stopped countless speculation leading up to it. But how else are we fans supposed to get through the grueling spring and summer months now that spring ball is officially over? I guess it's either that or baseball and I think I'd rather hang myself before watching an MLB game. So here I sit, looking at this season's Utes schedule and how I think it should play out.
I'm going to say it right off the bat, this is a very important season for Kyle Whittingham and Crew. His team last year fared decent enough, barely keeping their heads above water with a 7-5 finish. However that record is respectable considering the changes that took place between 2004 and 2005. Most notably, the Utes losing most of their offense and a good chunk of their defense. With that said, a 7-5 regular season finish (since there will be 12 regular season games) will probably not be acceptable for many Ute fans this season. Utah returns most of its offensive weapons and a great deal of its defense, all on top of a spectacular finish that culminated in an Emerald Bowl thrashing of 25th ranked Georgia Tech. That ending created strong momentum that Kyle Whittingham needs to capitalize on in his second year.
Looking at the 2006 schedule, I think it would be best to break it down by four categories: Sure Win, Probable Win, Toss-up, and Should Lose. Since there are no real "Sure losses" on the schedule, I have omitted that from the breakdown.
Sure Win:
NAU - Let's not kid ourselves, Utah has a better chance of going Democratic than the Utes have of losing to Northern Arizona. As George Herbert Walker Bush would say, "Not going to happen, wouldn't be prudent". You're right, George!
USU - Sorry our Northern Utah friends, but until Utah State actually proves they're good on the football field, this will always be a sure win for Utah. Since '77 Utah has only lost to USU 5 times and hasn't lost since 1997.
UNLV - 1979 was the last time UNLV actually beat Utah in football. Since, they've rarely made it competitive. In fact since 1999, Utah has won by an average score of 42-19. Holy Taken Out Behind the College Football Woodshed Batman!
That puts Utah's win total at 3, at least. Not good enough.
Probable Win:
SDSU - Probable as probable can get. San Diego State stunned Utah last year in Salt Lake City, but I don't see that happening again (yeah, and I didn't see SDSU beating Utah either). Utah should be favored to win and with it coming early in Coach Long's first season, the Utes get a break. Does this mean they will win? Definitely not, but I don't see the Utes repeating the same mistakes as last year.
Wyoming - The Cowboys are a hard team to peg. I say this is probable mostly because the Utes have had their way with Wyoming over the past few years. The Pokes struggled last season and I think they're still going to struggle this season as well. They won't be nearly as bad, but the Utes should win it.
CSU - 4th and goal, then bam! Game over. That loss still burns me and keeps Utah from a respectable 8-4 finish. In fact, if the Utes punch it in on 4th and goal, they beat CSU, probably go on to beat SDSU and finish the season with 9 wins and a top-25 finish. But if ifs and buts were candy and nuts, we'd have ourselves a porno movie. That said, payback is a bitch and the Utes have Colorado State at home this season. I'm sure that game will be playing in the minds of both the coaches and players leading up to it and a more experienced Utes team should put the hammer down on a declining Rams team.
If all goes well, that would put Utah's win total at 6 wins, still a lot of work to do.
Toss-up:
TCU - Another game that haunted Utah last season. Who knew, when the Utes lost that one, TCU would turn out to be one of the best teams in the nation? Well now the Utes will look for a bit of revenge, especially with how that game ended. Let's just hope that the refs actually KNOW when to stop the clock. Either way, this game could be epic and neither team has a clear advantage.
Boise State - You think Whittingham remembers the 1999 game between the two? He should, his defense kept BSU nearly 10 points under their season average (34 PPG) on the road. Yet even with holding BSU to 26 points, the Utes still lost. I'd like to say it won't happen again, but BSU is a good team and I'm not going to talk down their recent success. This game will be tough and could break the Rice-Eccles scoreboard. Light out, baby.
New Mexico - Tough game, Lobos will be difficult, as they always are, and being on the road doesn't help matters. The Utes have had a bad past with New Mexico ('94, '03, '05) and '06 might be added to the sordid chapter, too.
Air Force - I put Air Force here because they always play the Utes tough. It doesn't matter what the records are, the Falcons always show up to play the Utes. In 2004 it took the Utes 3 quarters before they finally put away the Falcons, and the final score was the closest game Utah had all season. Last season the Falcons made a feverish fourth quarter comeback and nearly stunned Utah, luckily though they held on for the victory. This season the Utes travel to Colorado Springs, the site of their epic 3 OT game three seasons ago, the Utes won by two points. This game could go either way, especially if the Falcons actually turn things around.
BYU - Who am I kidding? This should be as much of a near lock as USU. Utah has won 4 straight, 9 of the last 13 and the game this season is played in Salt Lake City. Yet, I'm not that foolish, because this is a rivalry game. And as they say, the records can be thrown out the window when two rivals meet. BYU will be looking for some revenge after the Utes pretty much ruined the debut of Bronco Mendenhall, and that might be enough to beat Utah in Salt Lake.
The toss-up games make up most of the schedule and will either make or break this team. Last year it nearly broke them, but a victory over BYU saved them from the embarrassment of a losing season. The Utes probably won't win every game, but I don't see them losing more than 2 out of this batch. That would put their win total at 9 wins.
Should Lose:
UCLA - As much as I'd love for this to be a toss-up, I'm confident in saying Utah won't be favored heading into the game. The Utes may upset the Bruins, but it will be a difficult challenge and one I'm not sure Utah is ready to do right now. Of course, this game isn't a sure loss and so the possibility is there, it's just not a big enough of one to warrant placing in the toss-up category.
That keeps Utah's record at 9 wins, and most likely 3 losses. In my mind, that would make the season a success. In fact, even 8 wins and 4 losses would be a success, especially if you couple that with a bowl win. Anything less than that however will be a disappointment.
